近日美國勞動力市場放緩、股市動蕩，引發市場對美國經濟衰退的擔憂。專家警告稱，種種跡象表明美國經濟衰退即將到來。

After 11 consecutive aggressive rate hikes by the Fed from March 2022 to July 2023, the target range for the US federal funds rate has risen to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. Radhika Desai, visiting professor at the London School of Economics, says high interest rates will suppress market vitality and trigger crises. US interest rates have now reached a high level that resembles that of the 2008 subprime crisis, and "the recession is essentially imminent."
在2022年3月至2023年7月美聯儲連續11次大幅加息后，美國聯邦基金利率目標區間已升至5.25%至5.5%之間。倫敦政治經濟學院客座教授拉荻卡·德賽表示，高利率將抑制市場活力并引發危機。目前美國利率已達2008年次貸危機時的高位，“經濟衰退迫在眉睫”。

The US economy is now showing signs of slowing. The July jobs report was softer than expected, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth straight month — sparking a market sell-off and heightening fears of an impending recession.
美國經濟現在顯示出放緩的跡象。7月份就業數據低于預期，失業率連續第四個月上升，引發了股市拋售，加劇了人們對美國經濟衰退即將到來的擔憂。

In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. “US news hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” said Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan.
鑒于最近的經濟形勢，摩根大通研究部將2024年底之前美國和全球經濟衰退的可能性提高到35%。摩根大通首席全球經濟學家布魯斯·卡斯曼表示：“美國的市場信息暗示，勞動力需求的疲軟程度高于預期，并有裁員的早期跡象。

英文來源：CGTN, J.P. Morgan

編輯：董靜

審校：陳丹妮 齊磊

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