據(jù)彭博社4月13日報道，國際信貸組合經(jīng)理協(xié)會（IACPM）的一項調(diào)查顯示，信貸投資組合經(jīng)理們預測，未來一年企業(yè)違約率將上升，84%的受訪者認為美國經(jīng)濟有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

Washington: Credit portfolio managers are forecasting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming year while more than four-out-of-five participants see a chance of a US recession in 2023, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers.
根據(jù)國際信貸組合管理協(xié)會(IACPM)的一項調(diào)查，信貸投資組合經(jīng)理們預測，未來一年美企違約率將上升，超八成的受訪者認為，美國有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

The poll found that 81 percent of fund managers see defaults picking up in the next 12 months, compared with 80 percent in the survey last December, as reduced bank liquidity and credit risk concerns land on top of macroeconomic issues. For North American corporates, 86 percent of respondents see defaults rising, while 91 percent see defaults rising in Europe.
調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，81%的基金經(jīng)理認為未來12個月企業(yè)違約將加劇，而2022年12月的調(diào)查中這一比例為80%，原因是銀行流動性減少，以及對信貸風險擔憂成為宏觀經(jīng)濟問題的首要因素。86%的受訪者認為北美企業(yè)違約率將上升，而有91%的受訪者認為歐洲企業(yè)違約率將上升。

“Our members have expected to see the impact of rising interest rates for some time and we’re beginning to see more credit stress and defaults in corporate borrowers now,” Som-lok Leung, IACPM’s executive director, wrote in a statement. “Unfortunately, this could take some time to work its way through the system.”
IACPM執(zhí)行董事Som-lok Leung在一份聲明中寫道：“我們預計利率上升的影響將持續(xù)一段時間，現(xiàn)在我們開始看到企業(yè)借款人面臨更多信貸壓力和違約。不幸的是，這可能需要一段時間才能在系統(tǒng)中顯現(xiàn)?！?/p>

Survey respondents are also predicting a recession in the US, with 84 percent expecting one to occur sometime this year. That’s higher than the 61 percent of participants who see a recession this year in Europe and the UK.
受訪者還預計美國將出現(xiàn)衰退，84%的人預計今年某個時候美國經(jīng)濟會發(fā)生衰退。這一比例高于61%的受訪者認為歐盟和英國經(jīng)濟今年將出現(xiàn)衰退。

IACPM survey participants see certain industries like health care, medium-sized tech companies and defense manufacturers facing tough times in the current environment. Commercial real estate was also cited, given work-from-home trends lowering office occupancy rates and property owners having to refinance in a higher interest rate environment.
IACPM調(diào)查參與者認為，醫(yī)療保健、中型科技公司和國防制造商等某些行業(yè)在當前環(huán)境下面臨艱難時期;商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)也被認為是其中一員，因為居家辦公的趨勢降低了辦公室占用率，業(yè)主不得不在更高的利率環(huán)境下進行再融資。

來源：彭博社
編輯：董靜，李蕙帆（實習）