經濟學家認為，今年下半年，中國將繼續推出一系列增量政策工具，進一步鞏固經濟向好趨勢，推動經濟復蘇提速。
China will continue to adopt a series of incremental policies to further consolidate and accelerate its economic recovery from COVID-19 in the latter part of this year, economists said.
經濟學家表示，今年下半年，中國將繼續推出一系列增量政策工具，進一步鞏固經濟向好趨勢，推動經濟復蘇提速。
"It is estimated that apart from recently launched quasi-fiscal policy instruments, the Chinese government will provide additional fiscal funds worth about 1.5 trillion yuan ($222 billion) in the second half. The channels for capital replenishment include the issuance of local government special bonds, submission of increased profits of State-owned enterprises and revitalization of existing funds," said Yu Xiangrong, China chief economist at Citigroup.
花旗集團中國首席經濟學家余向榮預測：“除了最近出臺的準財政政策工具外，下半年政府可能會追加約1.5萬億元的增量財政資金，可能性較大的補充渠道包括地方政府發行的專項債券；增加國企利潤上繳、盤活存量資金等方式。”
Yu emphasized that infrastructure investment is becoming a strong foothold for China to stabilize growth. As traditional infrastructure is still underdeveloped and has weak links due to its unbalanced growth, industrial upgrade and transitions to cleaner, greener energy need large-scale "new infrastructure" investment.
余向榮強調，基建投資正成為穩增長的主要抓手。由于基礎設施短板依然存在，產業升級和能源轉型也需大規模新基建投資的配合。
"The government will comprehensively broaden infrastructure financing through channels like fiscal policies and policy banks. We expect that China's full-year infrastructure investment will increase by 7.7 percent year-on-year, up from 0.4 percent last year, and the growth rate will remain at around 5 percent in 2023," he said.
余向榮稱：“中國政府將繼續通過財政和政策性銀行等渠道全面拓寬基建融資，我們預測，全年基建投資增速將由2021年的0.4%升至今年的約7.7%，并在2023年維持在5%區間附近。”
Infrastructure investment has enjoyed strong policy support, including an acceleration of local government special bond issuance and fresh 300 billion yuan funding from policy banks. Thanks to these fundings, infrastructure investment growth will likely stay high in the next few months, said Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank.
基礎設施投資近期獲得了強有力的政策支持，如加快地方政府專項債券發行、政策性銀行發行 3000 億人民幣金融工具等。德意志銀行首席中國經濟學家熊毅表示，未來數月內，基礎設施投資增速有望在政策支持下維持在較高水平。
Most of the government's announced policies thus far are short-term in nature. Barring further policy announcements, fiscal policy might soon hit its annual budget constraints and debt ceilings, Xiong said.
當前出臺的大多數政策都是短期的。熊毅認為，若下半年沒有進一步的政策支持，財政政策或將很快受到年度預算和債務上限的限制。
Lian Ping, chief economist at Zhixin Investment and head of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, agreed that the proactive fiscal policy will remain the main force to boost economic recovery in China in the second half.
植信投資首席經濟學家兼研究院院長連平表示，積極的財政政策仍將是推動下半年中國經濟復蘇的主要力量。
The government needs to further accelerate fiscal spending, especially in areas like social security, employment, healthcare, and agriculture, forestry and water resources, Lian said.
連平說，政府需要進一步增加財政支出，特別是在社會保障、就業、醫療保健、農業、林業和水資源等領域。
"The majority of funds raised via the issuance of treasury bonds and local government bonds are expected to be used by the end of August. This will effectively support the implementation of major projects in China, and the impact of the nation's fiscal policy on stabilizing growth will further appear. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, China may front-load the 2023 special-purpose bond quota to satisfy continuously increasing financing needs, thus allowing macroeconomic policies to provide sustained support for growth stabilization," he said.
“8月末預計發債募集的資金將大部分使用完畢，將有效支持重大項目落地實施，財政對穩增長的政策效應會進一步顯現。今年四季度初有可能會提前下發2023年額度，以滿足持續增長的融資需求，發揮宏觀政策對穩增長的持續支持。”
Because of the acceleration of government bond issuance and unleashed financing demand of businesses, China will see faster credit growth, and the liquidity of its banking system may become relatively tight for a certain period at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. As a result, the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, may cut the reserve requirement ratio again to meet funding needs boosted by accelerated economic growth in the second half, Lian said.
連平認為，政府債券發行提速后資金落地進一步加快、企業融資需求得到一定釋放等都將加快信貸增長速度。三季度末或四季度初銀行流動性可能會階段性的相對緊張，預計央行可能會擇時再次降準，滿足下半年經濟增長加快的資金需求。
The PBOC may also lower relending rates for the agriculture sector and small businesses once more to support banks' further cuts to lending rates for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, he said.
連平稱，央行可能會再次下調支農支小再貸款再貼現利率，支持銀行下調中小微企業貸款利率。
來源：中國日報
編輯：董靜
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